Why the New Zodiac–Dahlia “Solution” Falls Apart

When Black Dahlia Avenger hit shelves in 2003, Steve Hodel’s shocking claim that his father killed Elizabeth Short came with big endorsements — retired LAPD brass, high-profile names, a media storm. Now, more than two decades later, a similarly “explosive” theory has emerged claiming to identify both the Black Dahlia killer *and* the Zodiac as the same man.  

It’s easy to see the appeal. These are two of America’s most famous unsolved murders. And there’s really no downside to being wrong when your suspect is long deceased. In the crowded world of true crime, all attention — even controversy — sells. There’s no malice in saying so; this analysis is purely about the evidence, logic, and basic criminology.

THE THEORY IN QUESTION

Researcher Alex Baber claims to have cracked the Zodiac’s “Z13” cipher from April 1970 by building an AI model to test millions of possible name combinations. His “solution,” he says, points to Marvin Merrill (born Margolis), a onetime acquaintance of Elizabeth Short — better known as the Black Dahlia. Baber asserts that Merrill changed his name to hide his past crimes and that a series of coincidental links — handwriting, word choices, a nude sketch of a woman, and place names — corroborate the connection between both cases.

THE PROBLEMS BEGIN

This theory collapses under even mild scrutiny. It’s a collection of coincidences presented with technical jargon and self-reinforcing logic — what might be called a Wizard of Oz revelation: elaborate machinery producing nothing real. Look closely, and it’s a beautifully detailed but fundamentally incoherent painting — impressive brushwork, yet the subject is distorted and implausible.

FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT CRIMES

To start, the Black Dahlia murder and the Zodiac killings bear almost no resemblance in motive, method, or psychology.  

- The Dahlia killer displayed medical knowledge and an intensely personal fury — torture, dismemberment, and staging.  
- The Zodiac was detached, impulsive, and used firearms. His attacks were often random, his letters self-aggrandizing, his killings quick.  
- The Zodiac left abundant physical evidence. The Dahlia killer left none.  
- Serial killers typically escalate in violence — not the other way around — and they rarely take two-decade breaks only to reemerge committing a completely different type of crime.

These disparities alone are fatal to any claim of common perpetration.

HANDWRITING AND LANGUAGE CONTRADICTIONS

Baber anchors much of his argument on supposed handwriting overlap. Yet even George Hodel’s own handwriting expert — referenced in Black Dahlia Avenger — noted that the lack of lowercase printing prevented any clear identification, either confirming or eliminating him. Comparing the Dahlia “Avenger” letter with Zodiac’s writing shows glaring differences:  

- Dahlia uses lowercase “i” forms and formal, clean strokes.  
- Zodiac alternates between upper and lower case, irregular slants, and frequent misspellings.  
- Even signature letters and numbers like “A,” “D,” or “2” look nothing alike.  

Baber’s additional claim that the wording patterns of these letters show overlap is unsupported. No Dahlia expert or linguistic analyst outside his circle has affirmed that connection.

THE NUDE DRAWING NONSENSE

Perhaps the weakest point is the so-called “nude drawing confession.” It’s a sketch of a woman named Elizabeth — a name the artist reportedly associated with a girlfriend, not Elizabeth Short. There are no wounds, no resemblance, no violent imagery. Calling it a confession is pure projection. Even the handwriting and “ZoDiac” tag in the image differ distinctly from the real Zodiac letters. Baber’s reasoning — that Merrill “left out” key injuries to avoid being too obvious — defeats itself.

QUESTIONABLE RELATIONSHIP EVIDENCE

Baber’s theory hinges on Merrill having been romantically involved with Elizabeth Short. Surviving records show otherwise. She stayed briefly with the Margolis household, slept on the couch while another couple shared the bed, and soon moved on. By the time she left, there’s no evidence of any dispute or “flight” to San Diego — her movements afterward are well-documented elsewhere.  

Even the supposed “Lost Week” alibi gap, often cited to implicate Merrill, remains speculative. The only source connecting it to Margolis traces back to claims popularized by George Hodel himself, not independent police evidence.

THE "CIPHER" SOLUTION THAT SOLVES NOTHING

The Zodiac’s Z13 code has long been considered unsolvable — too short to verify statistically. Baber’s “AI” approach allegedly tested tens of millions of names before narrowing in on one that conveniently fit the pattern: Marvin Merrill, which happens to contain thirteen letters. His own words reveal the flaw: it wasn’t a real decryption, merely a process of elimination constrained by preselected traits (white male, 30s-40s, California, WWII veteran). That’s not decoding; that’s selective filtration.  

Even Baber concedes that Z13 was never evidence, only “an investigative tool.” Yet he later labeled the conclusion “mathematically irrefutable,” which — apart from being a misuse of mathematics — gives away the unscientific confidence driving the claim.

MORE SMALLER LEAPS AND OMISSIONS

Other alleged “connections” disintegrate on inspection:  
- The word “Material” in letters that weren’t even established as authentic.  
- A “Zodiac Motel” located by arbitrary geography and anecdotal routes.  
- Spurious parallels like *The Most Dangerous Game* referenced in a Zodiac letter also having been watched in film by Elizabeth.
- Misrepresentation of Merrill’s family response: his son, in fact, has publicly dismissed the claim as “fiction” and “a speculative cesspool.”  

These are not fine details of an overlooked truth — they are the scattered artifacts of confirmation bias.

WHAT IT REALLY SHOWS

At heart, the only true overlap between the Dahlia and Zodiac cases is that both killers communicated with the press. That’s it. And a long list of others did too: BTK, Son of Sam, Green River. It’s understandable that people still hunger for a unified theory, especially when new tools like AI promise dazzling discoveries. But when critical thinking yields to narrative convenience, the result is entertainment, not forensic insight.

Baber’s insistence that his answer is “mathematically impossible” to be wrong echoes the same overconfidence that powered decades of false leads before him. The irony is, his own evidence best disproves the very conclusion he draws.

So, could Marvin Merrill have killed Elizabeth Short? It’s possible — as countless others were. Could he have been Zodiac? No. Not by any stretch of evidence, psychology, or common sense. The wiser lesson here comes from Steve Hodel himself: sensational claims will carry you far, but they rarely carry you closer to the truth.  

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